Background: Ambrosia pollen is the most common reason of the seasonal allergies in the population. For better prophylaxis of pollinosis it is necessary to develop modern methods for prediction of the high content of pollen in the atmosphere.
Objective: We improved the method for daily pollen forecast of aeropollenologic situation connected with the changes of ambrosia pollen amount in the air.
Materials and methods: Monitoring of aeroallergic situation was made with volumetric trap. In our calculation we used the archive data of the weather station WMO 34601. Results of the research were processed with the help of STATISTICA 10 StatSoft Inc. program and Excel.
Results: For ten years of the study we had accumulated material which allowed us to find some regularities of ambrosia pollen distribution in the atmospheric air of Zaporizhzhia on the days of pollination depending on the meteorological conditions. For the improvement of the forecast of aeroallergic situation we offer to use the formula for the determination of the expected daily amount of ambrosia pollen which is a product of pollen amount in the particular day as an average one for long-term study and the coefficients of the impact factors of the most significant meteorological factors. We calculated and used such coefficients as correction coefficient for the asymmetry of the pollen distribution according to days of pollination; coefficient of wind influence; coefficient of precipitation influence; coefficient of dependence of the amount of pollen in the air on atmospheric pressure; coefficient of the dependence of the amount of pollen on relative humidity. We also assessed the risk of allergic reaction development in the population by 5-point scale where 1 point corresponded to a low threat level and 5 points indicated the highest level of danger for the patients.
Conclusions: The amount of ambrosia pollen in the particular days can significantly differ from the average indicators under the influence of various weather factors and there was no reliable correlation between the level of pollen and the intensity of the isolated factors. The mode of the influence of particular weather factors can change and even be opposite depending on the intensity or direction of the weather changes. The first attempt to calculate the expected amount of pollen as a product of the average values and the coefficients of meteorological impact showed a positive result. On the average for 10 years, the coefficient of the correlation between the level of pollen and forecast, made with the help of proposed method, made up 0.8 ± 0.06.Proposed method allows us to leave the subjective approach and to calculate the allergic prediction based on the weather forecast.

aerobiology, ambrosia, pollen, allergic prediction

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